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The Real ‘Technical Reasons’for India’s Economic Slump


Posted by Rachit Seth on Tuesday 19 September, 2017 Hits:50

The Narendra Modi Government has reserved its place in the Economic History of India as a Government which squandered away all the gains of a thriving Economy and reversed its ranking from the fastest growing large Economy to a sluggish, stagnating and a declining one.

The Economy was growing has been derailed due to absolutely unwitting and disastrous decision making – as in the case of Demonetisation and a good idea like the GST was translated into a flawed law that suffered from bad and hurried implementation, and affected many industries in the manufacturing sector.

The BJP which suffers from an age old habit of false bravado, empty rhetoric and loud boastfulness has shut its blinkered eyes to reality. BJP President Shri Amit Shah’s audacious claims placing ‘Narendra Modi’s economic integration’ at the same pedestal as ‘Sardar Patel’s political integration’ and ‘DrBabasahebAmbedkar’s social integration’ are not only a contemptuous insult to our founding fathers but also a pathetic attempt to paint black into white.

Amit Shah who has attributed the plummeting of GDP figures to ‘Technical Reasons’ desperately needs to coach himself in the basic Economic Indices which are plunging and declining at the speed of light. Perhaps, then the BJP Government could excavate those ‘Technical Reasons’ and present them before the country.

For Common People, there is only one ‘Technical Reason’ – The Complete Economic Mismanagement of the Modi Sarkar !


Here are some REAL Technical Reasons:-
1. Declining GDP Growth
It is now an undeniable fact that ‘Modi Made Disaster of Demonetisation’ has dealt a catastrophic blow to the Economic Growth of India and shaved off 2% of our GDP. Every economist is agreed that India’s economic growth has slowed down. The Chief Economic Adviser has candidly admitted the fact, only his government is in denial!
Despite the surreptitious fudging of figures and devising a new method of GDP calculation- Growth in the last six quarters has slowed down sharply.

In the past 3.5 years, the BJP Govt. does not have the faintest idea of how to stop slide of the Economy.

2. No Jobs for the youth

Every day 33000 young people are queuing for jobs, but the BJP Government is only able to create 500 jobs per day. A million new people entering the labor force every month. Job creation remains the single biggest failure of this BJP Government. The labour bureau data shows that job creation is at the lowest in 8 years. If we don’t provide these jobs that are required, you have a million dissatisfied entrants. And that could create a lot of social mischief, former RBI Governor Shri RaghuramRajan recently said. 40 months of Modi Governance has gone but the promise of creating 2 Crore jobs per year remains a distant illusion.

3. Farm Distress Galore
Farmers have been the worst affected of Shri Modi’s complete apathy and infectivity. They are not being provided with an appropriate rate for their produce, supply chains are being dismantled and Swaminathan Report is not being implemented. The much publicized Pradhan MantriFasalBimaYojana is benefitting enlisted Private players at the expense of the hardworking farmers.
Solemen promise made by PM Modi to India’s farmers was to give “MSP + 50% Profit” as per BJP’s 2014 Election Manifesto – Now it remains a much sad mockery on the state of farmers.
Floods and drought in many parts of the country have added to their woes.

4. Plunging Exports
Plunging Exports have yet again proved the sluggishness of the Economy. In the 10 years of the UPA government, exports rose to USD 314 billion in 2013-14, registering a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 17.3 per cent. In the last three years under the NDA government, exports have remained far below the peak: USD 310 billion, USD 262 billion and USD 276 billion – This effectively means a year-on-year Change


5. Investments in Free Fall
Private investment is also not driving growth. In the last three years, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) as a percentage of GDP was the lowest at 26.9% in 2016-17, this has been lowest since 14 years. This year also did not see any significant rise in this index.
The worst hit are medium enterprises where the bulk of the jobs are.Outstanding credit to medium enterprises declined from Rs 1,19,268 crore in July 2015 to Rs 1,00,542 crore in July 2017 — a shrinkage of 16 per cent!

6. Inflation has raised its ugly head
Burning holes in the pockets of Common People has become the benchmark of Governance for the BJP. Looting people, profiteering at their expense & squeezing their hard earned money is the sole aim of the BJP Government.
Inflation has hit a 5 month high with Retail Inflation (CPI) rising to 3.36 % in August from a year earlier and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) rose to a 4 month high to 3.24 % from a year ago. This means Food items- fruits and vegetables have become costlier, thus ruining our household budgets. Due to heavy taxation and rise of fuel prices, it is natural that the cost of transportation and supply of food items increase hence adversely impacting the savings of common people. Food inflation was driven by rising price trends of onion at 88.46%, vegetables at 44.91%, and fruits at 7.35% and milk at 3.94%.
While Petroleum Minister, Shri Dharmendra Pradhan has spelled out absurd reasons like ‘Hurricane Harvey and Irma’ on the increase of petrol and diesel prices, it has dealt a devastating blow to the savings of the Common People by brazenly increasing Central Excise duty 11 times in past 3.5 years - 133.47% on Petrol and 400.86%on Diesel

7. ‘Make In India’ Lion has failed to Roar!
In April-July 2017, overall IIP grew by a mere 1.7 per cent; manufacturing IIP grew by 1.3 per cent. The July numbers were abysmal: overall 1.2 per cent and manufacturing 0.1 per cent.

FDI in manufacturing hit a high of US$9.6 billion in 2014-15 (slightly better than the previous 2011-12 record), but actually fell the next year to US$8.4 billion
Despite rising costs in China, India has made little headway into becoming a global manufacturing alternative, particularly at the low end that generates the most jobs. Textiles and clothing jobs from China are moving to Myanmar, Cambodia and, yes, Bangladesh, while Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia are gaining in electronics production.

8. Rising NPA’s – PSU Banks are Bleeding !
Ratings agency Crisil has estimated stressed assets in the banking system to be around Rs 11.5 lakh crore, or nearly 14 per cent of the total advances, and does not expect this number to increase significantly over the medium term.
Crisil expects gross NPAs in the banking system to be around 10.5 per cent of advances as of March 2018, up from 9.5 per cent as of March 2017.

The quantum of bad loans registered in Gujarat has increased by 2.5 times. At the end of June 2017, the gross NPAs or Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) of all the banks in the state crossed the Rs 35,000 crore-mark, which is more than double the numbers registered in June 2014.
The rising bad loans in the MSME and the agriculture sector have adversely affected performance of banks in Gujarat, reveals the latest report released after a meeting of State Level Banker’s Committee (SLBC)

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